Which company has the second best Math AI model end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Cluster 2
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-NET
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-DIS
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-AMA
Analysis
This market estimates a 19% chance that the second-best math AI model globally will be developed by one of the major AI companies by end of April 2026. The relatively modest probability reflects uncertainty about how to rank mathematical reasoning capabilities across different systems and which companies will release competitive models in this specific domain. The market is influenced by recent performance benchmarks on mathematical reasoning tasks and companies' stated roadmaps for releasing new models. A key catalyst for resolution would be publication of standardized benchmarks comparing mathematical reasoning capabilities across leading AI systems, which typically occur when companies release new model versions or independent evaluation organizations publish comparative assessments.
- ›Performance on established math benchmarks (AIME, IMO-level problems, formal reasoning tasks) across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and other leading labs as of April 2026
- ›Release timing and public availability of new model versions from major AI companies—whether capability improvements are rolled out before the resolution date
- ›Definition and methodology for ranking models as 'second-best' mathematically—benchmarks used, weighting of different mathematical reasoning categories, and whether evaluation is based on public claims or independent testing
- ›Market participants' beliefs about how quickly mathematical reasoning capabilities are advancing across competing organizations
- ›Historical correlation between coding model performance (where Anthropic currently leads at 58%) and mathematical reasoning capabilities, given overlap in required computational thinking skills
What moved the line
- Jun 23OpenAI↓4pp39→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Anthropic↑3pp56→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Anthropic↓3pp59→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18OpenAI↑3pp27→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21OpenAI↑3pp33→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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