Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

With only 12 days to expiry, this market is pricing in an extremely high 89% probability that Anthropic will lead the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end-April 2026, yet the implied yield for "No" positions reaches an extraordinary 25,553%—suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk concentration. The 3-cent rally from 86¢ to 89¢ over seven days combined with the massive spread between Yes (390%) and No (25,553%) yields indicates the market has become increasingly confident in Anthropic's dominance, though the realized volatility of 96% and cliff risk index of 8 signal substantial uncertainty remains despite the lopsided pricing. With only $4.4M in 24-hour volume against $15.2M open interest and 12 days remaining, liquidity is relatively thin for a market this heavily skewed, creating potential execution challenges for contrarian bettors.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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