Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$296
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1623 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Cluster 2
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Cluster 3
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Analysis
This probability reflects the odds that a single AI company will hold the #1 ranked model by end of April 2026. The 36% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about market leadership, with roughly two-to-one odds against any single dominant player. Several factors drive this assessment: the rapid iteration cycle of AI model releases means rankings can shift within weeks, and multiple companies (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI) are actively improving their offerings. The benchmark for 'best' model—whether measured by coding performance, general reasoning, or safety—remains contested across evaluation frameworks. Key catalysts include scheduled model announcements, benchmark releases (like standardized coding competitions), and performance leaderboard updates. A 36% reading indicates near-parity among top contenders, meaning current market leaders could either solidify dominance through decisive improvements or lose ground if competitors achieve breakthroughs.
- ›Anthropic currently prices at 58¢ in December coding-model contracts, suggesting 58% of market participants expect them to lead on that specific metric by year-end
- ›OpenAI trades at 33¢ for the same December coding benchmark, indicating roughly one-third confidence they'll retain their position
- ›Benchmark evaluation standards (LeetCode, HumanEval, real-world coding tasks) directly determine rankings and can shift with methodology changes
- ›Model release velocity—each major company releases updated versions every 4-12 weeks—creates high volatility in short-term rankings
- ›End-of-April timing is mid-cycle for most companies' development, meaning Q2 product announcements and competitive responses will be primary drivers
What moved the line
- Jul 16Anthropic↓5pp59→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Anthropic↑5pp56→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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