Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing OpenAI at just 5¢ despite having only 13 days to expiry, implying an extreme 53,672% annualized yield on a "Yes" position—a massive disconnect suggesting either deep skepticism about OpenAI holding the #3 spot or severe illiquidity concerns.
Analysis
This market is pricing OpenAI at just 5¢ despite having only 13 days to expiry, implying an extreme 53,672% annualized yield on a "Yes" position—a massive disconnect suggesting either deep skepticism about OpenAI holding the #3 spot or severe illiquidity concerns. The $4.6M open interest against just $565K in 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity with a wide 3¢ spread, making the extreme yield figure potentially misleading given execution challenges. With realized volatility at 4,471% and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a highly speculative tail-risk market where the low price may reflect genuine consensus that OpenAI has already fallen below third place on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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sf trade 0x675c0b7013b3a2ac0e3071df5f3ca5138ab3d4d8fff573ed30a5c2efa21b7655 yes 100