Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1578 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Cluster 2
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Cluster 3
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Analysis
This market estimates a 32% probability that a specific company (other than OpenAI or Anthropic) holds the #3 ranked AI model by end of April 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about which organization will secure third place in a competitive landscape where OpenAI and Anthropic currently dominate public benchmarks. Market participants are weighing whether established players like Google, or emerging competitors like xAI, can develop models that rank third by that date. Upward pressure would come from new model releases or benchmark results showing stronger performance from challengers; downward pressure would result from dominant incumbents maintaining their lead or consolidating positions. Resolution depends on how major AI labs rank their models against each other using standard evaluation metrics by the specified deadline.
- ›OpenAI and Anthropic currently price significantly higher (combined ~$1.10) than any third-place contender on the June benchmark contracts, suggesting market confidence in their continued dominance
- ›Google maintains 12¢ pricing for best model at end of June, indicating structural doubt about its ability to challenge the top two despite existing AI capabilities
- ›xAI's 4¢ price on the coding-specific contract (December 2026) shows investors assign low probability to emergence of viable competitors from newer entrants within the timeframe
- ›Kalshi contracts price 3 percentage points higher than Polymarket, suggesting different analytical weightings of third-place probability across venues
- ›No imminent scheduled model releases or benchmark events are mentioned in the contract list, indicating uncertainty driven by general competitive dynamics rather than near-term catalysts
What moved the line
- Sep 5Anthropic↑11pp58→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5OpenAI↓9pp29→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Anthropic↑8pp50→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4OpenAI↓7pp36→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2OpenAI↑6pp25→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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