Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (91%) that Anthropic will hold the second-best AI model position by end-April 2026, with the price rising 6 cents over the past week despite only $1.3M in daily volume and relatively thin liquidity ($7.3M open interest).
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (91%) that Anthropic will hold the second-best AI model position by end-April 2026, with the price rising 6 cents over the past week despite only $1.3M in daily volume and relatively thin liquidity ($7.3M open interest). The asymmetric implied yields—263% for Yes versus 26,912% for No—reflect severe mispricing on the No side, though the high cliff risk index (10) and 72% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty could materialize in the final two weeks as new model releases approach the resolution date. With only 14 days remaining and an information arrival rate of 0.3 events per hour, late-breaking AI model announcements could dramatically shift this market, making the current 91¢ price potentially vulnerable despite the strong conviction it currently reflects.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5f21c35963d7699b8276bff7fc5172e9c39d7380fb5bfd9ec7165781a1e47d57 yes 100