Which company has the second best AI model end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Cluster 2
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-NET
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-AMA
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-DIS
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a company other than the leader will hold the second-best AI model by end of April 2026. The 25% aggregate probability suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely but plausible. Two main factors drive the current level: the concentration of recent AI breakthroughs among a few dominant players, which makes it difficult for a second-place competitor to emerge, and uncertainty about which capability dimension matters most for ranking models—coding performance, reasoning, multimodal abilities, or general instruction-following. The outcome depends heavily on how model benchmarks are evaluated in late April, particularly whether official leaderboards and third-party evaluations show a clear separation between first and second place, or whether technical performance remains contested across different domains.
- ›Benchmark methodology: Whether end-of-April evaluations prioritize coding benchmarks (favoring Anthropic per Kalshi data) versus general reasoning tasks affects which company places second
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi divergence of 7 percentage points suggests material disagreement on likelihood; Polymarket traders price it higher, possibly reflecting greater uncertainty about what 'best model' means
- ›Recent contract data shows heavy Anthropic positioning across multiple timeframes (June style control at 67¢, December coding at 59¢), indicating concentrated market belief in their competitive position
- ›The 20% Kalshi average versus 27% Polymarket average may reflect different trader bases with different definitions of model quality or different confidence in April timeline data
- ›Top trading volume concentrates on 'which company has best' contracts, not second-best, suggesting secondary rankings receive less liquidity and sharper opinion divergence
What moved the line
- Aug 18Amazon↑49pp14→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Amazon↓18pp59→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Amazon↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Amazon↓9pp41→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23xAI↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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