Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

The market has collapsed from 9¢ to 3¢ over seven days, reflecting dramatically reduced confidence in Google holding the second-best AI model position by end-April 2026. With only 14 days to resolution and an extreme 86,062% implied yield on the "Yes" side, the 3¢ price appears to price in near-certainty that either OpenAI, Anthropic, or another competitor will occupy that second-place slot on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard. The modest $361k daily volume and high realized volatility (3,058%) suggest thin liquidity and sharp conviction shifts, making this a high-risk cliff event given the binary nature of the resolution criteria.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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