Pakistan · Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027
Pakistan is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?.
Price history
10¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Pakistan
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Mexico 34¢
Range
7¢-34¢
Family volume
$335K
Identifier
0x85ad3028...a42e
Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$335K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x85ad3028…a42e
Event family
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$335K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Mexico 34¢
Current share
31%
Mexico
polymarket · 0x5cbca9adf861c7096259efa6ebaba8e69e90f00b8e5f77b272ed13070f9a2ee7
India
polymarket · 0x533aab0d99851ea6dccf14861b8b7bb5026a40a15718769f8cc519d93380b391
United Kingdom
polymarket · 0xdabf29e1d9a73105559248dc8cae409e87f7affb1f15ad39660ec2a4c6e6fed7
South Korea
polymarket · 0xcc9b5eb0fb5b7fa763bee8c0d37cb4559a8cc0336dce6dc34b54d072720c807d
Australia
polymarket · 0x7531c660ca20317d50ca9dd3a3b1df7659509bb6a415ac1f026c63be5061afb3
Vietnam
polymarket · 0xd60f9b0c5ce8c507e463731b67017dec027eea02bf4bfd3c3dccb364fc2262b7
Canada
polymarket · 0x81e8f9fd1c08c597b716ea800a97c6d04d60c985a2c388bc6d77a0f85e643df8
Taiwan
polymarket · 0x42520d88b4fa9d58ea74d3579b14398e76873a88c09bbfc9e0e801694a547d5c
South Africa
polymarket · 0xc77d51450d7d97d1239b003889d0899410c68c383378d65aabf04b77666a4488
Indonesia
polymarket · 0xffe86f7d81d3834d1a9f71c7d9700c62d53bc051f0fcd6efbadeb1c26c48837a
Japan
polymarket · 0xfe61b06cd6643f489a4781a327cdf06bfd639e95151d938c801758a4bea41b73
European Union
polymarket · 0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f
Pakistan
polymarket · 0x85ad30282d095dd426c2b8c61a0f12c5fd1e751d1dd30830351001ced5fda42e
Brazil
polymarket · 0x66cbd462cd4e08dacb506dcc0df32b8a7ccf29d1c2f039f85e36eb768026b729
Russia
polymarket · 0x5b2d1c35c4510f926d8d026b61ed29816485c1cef9051a251e4b8672026075da
Argentina
polymarket · 0x2b23c92cb20b728bb52e34d431dd982ceb907a4ab255f7412776e8163ca89fe5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.