U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
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11¢Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $33.63·OI $38,923.563·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f
7-day price20 snapshots · 2 regime
12¢11¢ current
Apr 811¢Apr 14
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 8:23:19 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:08:24 AM
Trade
View on polymarket →
sf trade 0xdb3df04fc73bd716ab5619aebaaaa42a85c10b0faed27b654b5e5ec5714f500f yes 100