What is the current probability for "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 887.3% and 23.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 12/17¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $35,315.29·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xffe86f7d81d3834d1a9f71c7d9700c62d53bc051f0fcd6efbadeb1c26c48837a

7-day price143 snapshots · 2 regime

20¢14¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 887.3%

IY (No) 23.5%

Adj IY 887%

CRI 6

RV 502%

VR 1.75

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	887.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	887%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	502%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.75	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:08:59 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:08:33 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xffe86f7d81d3834d1a9f71c7d9700c62d53bc051f0fcd6efbadeb1c26c48837a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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