Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Which EPL teams will qualify for the Champions League?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6942% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues Chelsea's Champions League qualification odds with 39 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6942% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues Chelsea's Champions League qualification odds with 39 days to expiry. The massive $153k open interest contrasts sharply with only $765 in 24-hour volume, indicating trapped liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions at quoted prices. The sharp 5¢ price decline over seven days combined with a 1146% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (7/10) suggests recent negative news flow around Chelsea's top-four prospects, though the neutral regime score and modest 0.6/hour information arrival rate indicate the market may be overreacting to near-term noise.
Also on polymarket at 15¢(Δ -11¢)
Resolution rules
If Chelsea is one of the English Premier League Top 4 Finishers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLTOP4-26-CHE yes 100