Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE?

This market is pricing in only a 5% chance of SpaceX listing outside traditional US venues, reflecting strong consensus that a company of SpaceX's scale would choose NASDAQ or NYSE for its IPO. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $15,240 in open interest suggests minimal trader interest, though the 1¢ spread indicates reasonable liquidity depth for those wanting to position. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19 and no price movement over seven days, this appears to be a "set and forget" market where the outcome hinges almost entirely on Elon Musk's strategic decision, making it more of a binary corporate event bet than an active trading vehicle.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO). The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO. If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution. If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins. The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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