Which exchange will SpaceX list on?
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
NASDAQ
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Other
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$78
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which exchange will SpaceX list on
Analysis
This probability indicates a strong market consensus that SpaceX will list on NASDAQ rather than NYSE or remain private. The 91% price reflects expectations shaped by several market dynamics: Elon Musk's stated preference for NASDAQ (where Tesla trades), regulatory clarity around space company valuations, and the exchange's track record attracting high-growth technology firms. The probability could move downward if Musk signals a preference for NYSE, if regulatory changes affect SpaceX's timeline, or if market conditions deteriorate significantly. Upward movement would likely follow official IPO announcements favoring NASDAQ. The critical catalyst is any formal IPO filing or regulatory disclosure that specifies the intended listing venue. Until SpaceX announces an IPO date and exchange, this remains dependent on stated intentions and historical precedent rather than binding commitments.
- ›Elon Musk's public statements about preferring NASDAQ align with Tesla's listing history
- ›Related contract shows SpaceX IPO before June 1, 2026 priced at only 10 cents, suggesting uncertain near-term timing
- ›NASDAQ has successfully listed major aerospace and defense firms historically
- ›No formal IPO filing or announcement has been made as of the question date
- ›Market may be extrapolating from Musk's stated preferences rather than concrete corporate guidance
Recently closed in ai tech
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- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)last 97% · 1d
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.6Tlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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