Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 24% over seven days from 46¢ to 35¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction about Yan's appearance despite 259 days remaining until expiry.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 24% over seven days from 46¢ to 35¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction about Yan's appearance despite 259 days remaining until expiry. The 20¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the 179% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given the difficulty of actually executing trades at posted prices. The extreme 1321% realized volatility and 10.47 vol ratio point to a thin, unstable market where small position changes drive outsized price swings, warranting caution before treating the 35¢ price as a reliable probability estimate.
Also on kalshi at 40¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9b3d320db3c4d095ca3feb7dce35f9bba3e4bae92a8c654bb7722ac2d9673456 yes 100