Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Polymarket, closing November 7, 2028. The Democrats are priced at a modest 61-cent premium with relatively tight 1-cent spreads and healthy $4.2M daily volume, suggesting reasonable liquidity for a long-dated contract expiring in 935 days.
Analysis
The Democrats are priced at a modest 61-cent premium with relatively tight 1-cent spreads and healthy $4.2M daily volume, suggesting reasonable liquidity for a long-dated contract expiring in 935 days. The asymmetric implied yields—25% for Yes positions versus 61.1% for No—indicate the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty, with the No side offering substantially higher risk-adjusted returns (30%), suggesting some traders view Democratic victory odds as overestimated. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score (0.341) point to equilibrium pricing with no obvious directional momentum, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests minimal tail-risk concentration near resolution.
Also on kalshi at 61¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb106a3c9d1c59ed8117493dae6459a3ff79369a8f7cddaf62f4a05828b89195e yes 100