Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. The Democratic contract is trading at a modest 60¢ with tight 1¢ spreads and reasonable liquidity ($94.5k open interest), but the 24-hour volume of just $1,749 suggests limited recent trading activity.
Analysis
The Democratic contract is trading at a modest 60¢ with tight 1¢ spreads and reasonable liquidity ($94.5k open interest), but the 24-hour volume of just $1,749 suggests limited recent trading activity. The No side offers a notably higher implied yield of 42.1% compared to 18.7% for Yes, indicating the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite the Democratic lean, with a risk-adjusted yield of 21% suggesting fair compensation for the 3.5-year duration. The contract has drifted up 2¢ over the past week in a neutral regime, with low cliff risk, suggesting this is a relatively stable mid-term positioning rather than a market reacting to imminent catalysts.
Also on polymarket at 61¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPARTY-2028-D yes 100