Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Who will advance in the CA-40 top 2 primary election?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This CA-40 primary market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 197.4% annualized return versus just 39.8% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Varet's advancement odds at 33¢.
Analysis
This CA-40 primary market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 197.4% annualized return versus just 39.8% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Varet's advancement odds at 33¢. The contract has experienced sharp recent volatility, dropping 6¢ in seven days to its current level, while maintaining thin liquidity with only $14 in 24-hour volume despite $4.2K open interest. With 412 days to expiry and low cliff risk, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if you believe the market has overreacted to recent negative sentiment around Varet's candidacy.
Resolution rules
If Esther Kim Varet advances in the CA-40 top 2 primary election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA40PRIMARYADVANCE-26-EVAR yes 100