Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 742.8% implied yield on "No" versus just 27.0% on "Yes," suggesting traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about whether a Swift-Kelce wedding even occurs by end-2026—the true binary risk.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 742.8% implied yield on "No" versus just 27.0% on "Yes," suggesting traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty about whether a Swift-Kelce wedding even occurs by end-2026—the true binary risk. The 16¢ spread and minimal $0 24-hour volume indicate very low liquidity despite $3,006 open interest, making the 84¢ price potentially unreliable for actual position-taking. With 251% realized volatility and a 4.80 vol ratio, this market exhibits extreme price swings despite appearing stable over the past week, signaling that any news about Swift-Kelce's relationship status could trigger sharp repricing.
Also on kalshi at 82¢(Δ -32¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcb7d75e697bfc9e6a30d07ae0a5054922a8f82b444d62a95e9fa4b2d1d9c0867 yes 100