Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity despite a substantial $1.1M open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 20¢ spread suggesting difficulty executing trades at the quoted 81¢ price.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity despite a substantial $1.1M open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 20¢ spread suggesting difficulty executing trades at the quoted 81¢ price. The 603% implied yield on the "No" side is extraordinarily high relative to the 33.2% yield on "Yes," indicating severe mispricing or that traders heavily discount the wedding occurring—a stark contradiction to the 81% probability. The 846% realized volatility and 11.88 vol ratio signal this is a highly speculative, low-conviction market where the price may not reflect true consensus given the illiquidity and information arrival rate of only 0.4 events per hour over 258 days.
Also on kalshi at 86¢(Δ -30¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd94b679b3fac09091f0e3a492bcc4fde8aa063d019be7a05833eea14ca844199 yes 100