Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,037% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 19.3% on "Yes," suggesting traders are pricing in significant uncertainty about whether a Swift-Kelce wedding occurs at all by end-2026—the true binary risk here rather than Carpenter's attendance.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,037% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 19.3% on "Yes," suggesting traders are pricing in significant uncertainty about whether a Swift-Kelce wedding occurs at all by end-2026—the true binary risk here rather than Carpenter's attendance. The sharp 11-cent spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $2.1M open interest indicate illiquidity and potential staleness, with the price having climbed 11 cents over seven days on minimal trading activity. The 75% realized volatility and 7/10 cliff risk index flag this as a highly speculative position vulnerable to sudden repricing if wedding rumors materialize or fade.
Also on kalshi at 72¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe3f0d2290fa8afa6d120e9e090ef75244cbadc2b0cc83669d289c758126a481c yes 100