What is the current probability for "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 14, 2026. 83 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4430.1% and 43.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing July 14, 2026. This market on AJ Dybantsa being the third pick has collapsed 41% over seven days (from 17¢ to 10¢), suggesting significant deterioration in his draft positioning outlook or shifting consensus among bettors.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 9/11¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $1,033.11·Closes Jul 14, 2026·83d remaining

KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-3-ADYB

7-day price6 snapshots · 4 regime

17¢9¢ current

Apr 99¢Apr 18

Analysis

5d ago

This market on AJ Dybantsa being the third pick has collapsed 41% over seven days (from 17¢ to 10¢), suggesting significant deterioration in his draft positioning outlook or shifting consensus among bettors. The 11¢ price implies only an 11% probability, yet generates an extreme 3,708% implied yield on Yes positions, indicating severe mispricing or exceptionally high cliff risk (9/10) as the June 2026 draft approaches. With only $923 in open interest and $113 in 24-hour volume against a 3¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin, making this a speculative position best suited for contrarian bettors comfortable with execution risk.

Resolution rules

If AJ Dybantsa is selected as the third overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4430.1%

IY (No) 43.3%

Adj IY 2215%

CRI 10

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4430.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	43.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2215%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:42:42 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-3-ADYB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →