Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$746K
14 contracts
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
20 days
Bracket families
8 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked” vs “Will Nate Ament be picked”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr.
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-5-DACU
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr.
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-6-DACU
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 7th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr.
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-7-DACU
Cluster 2
Will Nate Ament be picked
Will Nate Ament be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Nate Ament
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-9-NAME
Will Nate Ament be picked 10th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Nate Ament
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-10-NAME
Will Nate Ament be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Nate Ament
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-6-NAME
Cluster 3
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked
Cluster 4
Will Aday Mara be picked
Cluster 5
Will Keaton Wagler be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft
Will Keaton Wagler be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Keaton Wagler
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-5-KWAG
Cluster 6
Will Brayden Burries be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft
Will Brayden Burries be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Brayden Burries
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-9-BBUR
Cluster 7
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Yaxel Lendeborg
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-9-YLEN
Cluster 8
Will Kingston Flemings be picked 8th in the Pro Basketball Draft
Will Kingston Flemings be picked 8th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Kingston Flemings
KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-8-KFLE
Analysis
The current 49% probability indicates that a specific player is favored to be selected third in the 2026 NBA Draft, though this represents plurality support rather than a consensus. The leading candidate faces meaningful competition from a runner-up at 38%, suggesting the third pick remains genuinely uncertain. Factors driving this probability include pre-draft evaluations by NBA scouts, team needs and draft position, player performance metrics from the 2025-26 season, and reported draft board rankings from league insiders. The probability will likely shift as the NBA Draft approaches on its scheduled date, when official team intentions and final mock drafts become clearer. Volatility may spike closer to the event as new workouts, interviews, and injury reports emerge.
- ›The leading outcome has 49% implied probability versus 38% for the runner-up, indicating material uncertainty rather than a clear favorite
- ›Pre-draft evaluation reports and mock drafts from established NBA analysts directly influence positioning of potential third-pick candidates
- ›The team holding the third pick's publicly stated needs and historical draft patterns affect which players are considered most likely at that position
- ›Recent performance metrics and injury status of top prospects would shift probabilities if significant new information emerges
- ›Official announcement of the third pick occurs at the NBA Draft event itself, making this a binary resolution rather than a gradual outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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