What is the current probability for "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 14, 2026. 83 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5038.6% and 38.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing July 14, 2026. This market on Darryn Peterson being the third overall pick shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $483 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 8/16¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $80.65·OI $641.98·Closes Jul 14, 2026·83d remaining

KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-3-DPET

7-day price12 snapshots · 4 regime

8¢8¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market on Darryn Peterson being the third overall pick shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $483 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable. The implied yield of 5473% on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the thin liquidity and wide 4¢ spread, suggesting this contract is mispriced rather than representing genuine market consensus. With 89 days to expiry and no recent price movement from 7¢, this appears to be a dormant micro-market where any trade could significantly move the quoted price.

Resolution rules

If Darryn Peterson is selected as the third overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5038.6%

IY (No) 38.1%

Adj IY 2519%

CRI 12

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5038.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	38.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2519%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:59 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-3-DPET yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →