What is the current probability for "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 14, 2026. 83 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 10515.3% and 18.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing July 14, 2026. This market on Jayden Quaintance being drafted third overall is extremely illiquid with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Jul 14, 2026·83d remaining

KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-3-JQUA

Analysis

5d ago

This market on Jayden Quaintance being drafted third overall is extremely illiquid with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 9,891.9% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests either severe mispricing or that this outcome is considered virtually impossible by informed traders. With 89 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 24, the market lacks sufficient liquidity to confidently trade, and the extreme yield differential between Yes (9,891.9%) and No (17.2%) indicates this is likely a dead or speculative market rather than one reflecting genuine draft consensus.

Resolution rules

If Jayden Quaintance is selected as the third overall pick in the 2026 Pro Basketball draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10515.3%

IY (No) 18.3%

Adj IY 5258%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	10515.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5258%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:43:13 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-3-JQUA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →