Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows Jannik Sinner priced at 55¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of $387, suggesting low liquidity despite a wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows Jannik Sinner priced at 55¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of $387, suggesting low liquidity despite a wide 9¢ spread. The 115.4% implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but reflects the illiquidity premium and 259-day time horizon rather than genuine mispricing. The sharp 9-point price increase over seven days (46¢ to 55¢) warrants attention—it may signal shifting market sentiment toward Sinner's dominance or could simply reflect thin order books moving on minimal volume.
Resolution rules
If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN yes 100