Who will become a UFC champion in 2026
Leader sits at 52% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Manel Kape
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Nassourdine Imavov
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Alexander Volkov
0x90602c…dc1a
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Magomed Ankalaev
0xb15a66…26fd
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Ian Machado Garry
0x98c850…c780
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Umar Nurmagomedov
0x908ceb…bd60
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Diego Lopes
0x8924cc…aaa4
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Nassourdine Imavov
0x7e2019…6bfc
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Shavkat Rakhmonov
0x79ff7d…36a4
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Sergei Pavlovich
0x684c63…3616
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Belal Muhammad
0x67adf4…5c5f
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Kamaru Usman
0x50471a…4e6e
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Leon Edwards
0x3fac70…450c
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Ciryl Gane
0x2cd190…3702
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Dricus Du Plessis
0x260bc3…1b20
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Jack Della Maddalena
0x1e51be…5695
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Manel Kape
0x162b72…ac7c
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Max Holloway
0x1465bf…d09b
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Yair Rodriguez
0x100d2c…548a
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Alexandre Pantoja
0x0fb843…e034
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Cory Sandhagen
0x07afcd…e0a6
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?: Paddy Pimblett
0x05c058…0056
Analysis
This represents the current market estimate that Cory Sandhagen will become a UFC champion in 2026. The 51% probability reflects a competitive field where multiple fighters hold realistic title-shot prospects. The uncertainty is driven by injury risk, fight results over the next several months that determine ranking progression, and the timing of title opportunities across UFC weight classes. Several fighters cluster tightly in odds (Sandhagen at 51%, Yair Rodriguez at 49%, Max Holloway at 50%), indicating genuine disagreement about who is most likely to secure a championship bout and win it. The primary catalyst will be UFC fight outcomes through mid-2026 that determine contender rankings and title-shot eligibility, with championship fights typically scheduled 2-3 months in advance. Injuries or unexpected defeats could rapidly shift probabilities among the frontrunners.
- ›Cory Sandhagen, Yair Rodriguez, and Max Holloway are priced within 2 cents, indicating tight competitive positioning rather than a clear favorite
- ›No 24-hour trading volume is recorded on any contract, suggesting minimal recent market activity and potentially outdated pricing
- ›UFC title-shot opportunities depend on fight scheduling and outcomes in 2026; only athletes who secure title bouts can resolve these contracts as winners
- ›Alexandre Pantoja's lower price (43¢) versus other top contenders suggests market skepticism about his path to a championship opportunity despite current belt eligibility
- ›Manel Kape at 18¢ indicates substantially lower perceived probability despite being an active title-adjacent fighter
What moved the line
- Jun 2Max Holloway↑38pp12→50¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6Dricus Du Plessis↓38pp47→9¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Yair Rodriguez↑24pp25→49¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Magomed Ankalaev↑21pp25→46¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Ian Machado Garry↑20pp19→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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