Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility (332% realized vol) and asymmetric yields favoring the No side (158.6% vs 124.7%), suggesting significant uncertainty around whether PARTYNEXTDOOR will feature on Drake's 'Iceman' album.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (332% realized vol) and asymmetric yields favoring the No side (158.6% vs 124.7%), suggesting significant uncertainty around whether PARTYNEXTDOOR will feature on Drake's 'Iceman' album. The price has declined 6 cents over seven days to 55¢, but liquidity remains thin with only $12.44 in 24-hour volume and $7.37k open interest, making the 124.7% implied yield potentially misleading given execution risk. With 260 days to expiry and a high info arrival rate of 0.8/hour, this market appears to be pricing in meaningful doubt about the collaboration despite the slight Yes lean.
Resolution rules
If PARTYNEXTDOOR is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-PAR yes 100