Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market is pricing a 54% probability of Gabbard's departure, but the asymmetric implied yields (166.1% for "No" vs. 120.6% for "Yes") suggest stronger conviction among "No" holders, indicating market participants expect her to remain through 2026. The 8-point price decline over seven days (62¢ to 54¢) represents meaningful downward momentum, potentially reflecting increased confidence in her tenure stability or reduced early-departure speculation. With $25.9M open interest against modest $462K daily volume, liquidity is relatively tight for the position size, creating potential slippage for larger trades.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Regime

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