What is the current probability for "Who will recognize Palestine?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 247 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will recognize Palestine?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3551.4% and 6.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will recognize Palestine?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will recognize Palestine?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will recognize Palestine?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,585 in open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/14¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $35·OI $2,739.89·Closes Jan 1, 2027·247d remaining

KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-FIN

7-day price56 snapshots · 3 regime

11¢4¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 28

Analysis

12d ago

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,585 in open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 2675% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a wide 6¢ spread suggests thin order books and difficulty executing trades at posted prices. The 7-day downtrend from 6¢ to 5¢ indicates weakening conviction in Finland recognition, though with negligible volume this movement may reflect minimal trading rather than genuine repricing.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ -8¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 1090.5%Close-time delta 29h

Resolution rules

If Finland recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3551.4%

IY (No) 6.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

LAS 2.50

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3551.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.50	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 1:22:43 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 1:08:26 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-FIN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →