Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 20¢ price generating a nonsensical 10,614% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the contract pricing mechanism has broken down or there's a data error.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 20¢ price generating a nonsensical 10,614% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the contract pricing mechanism has broken down or there's a data error. The sharp 12-cent price decline over seven days combined with only $14.257 in 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity and potential manipulation risk, while the 5-cent spread and 3,226% realized volatility signal high uncertainty despite the market closing in just 14 days. With 5.7 information arrivals per hour and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, late-breaking news about diplomatic scheduling could trigger sharp repricing near expiration.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x428af92fd81d95856a51aebacd2b8e0b6d8341f23be6c025c8d84cd1bdcd8f20 yes 100