Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 40.5% over seven days from 39¢ to 23¢, suggesting either new negative information about a potential meeting or profit-taking as the April 30 deadline approaches with just 14 days remaining.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 40.5% over seven days from 39¢ to 23¢, suggesting either new negative information about a potential meeting or profit-taking as the April 30 deadline approaches with just 14 days remaining. The extreme implied yield of 8,403% on the Yes side reflects the severe illiquidity and wide 7¢ spread relative to the 23¢ price, indicating this is a thin market where small trades can move prices significantly. With realized volatility at 1,376% and an info arrival rate of 4.5 events per hour, expect continued sharp swings as we approach resolution, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias in current market conditions.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0b864a863cf77566dca86ab37fbda393dd242c271de5200bf1663d7e34e163c7 yes 100