Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position trading at just 12¢ after collapsing 58% over seven days (from 29¢), yet the implied yield on Yes remains absurdly high at 19,460%, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position trading at just 12¢ after collapsing 58% over seven days (from 29¢), yet the implied yield on Yes remains absurdly high at 19,460%, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. With only $21.28 in 24-hour volume against $8.98k open interest and just 14 days to resolution, the 2¢ spread masks thin order books where small trades could trigger outsized price swings. The 1,020% realized volatility and Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicate this market is highly unstable and vulnerable to sudden resolution or late-breaking news about a Trump-Starmer meeting, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with extreme uncertainty.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x51d4e7fbceb90275ccb18a5d234ce575198005881c22599cf0f8c5410f96644a yes 100