Will Trump meet with Mark Zuckerberg in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Trump meet with Mark Zuckerberg in April 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price generating a 35,698% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity given the $8.4M open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9¢ price generating a 35,698% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity given the $8.4M open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The sharp 31% price decline over seven days (13¢ to 9¢) combined with a 10/10 cliff risk index indicates potential late-stage capitulation or positioning ahead of the April 30 expiry in just 10 days. The zero spread and neutral regime mask significant tail risk, as the extraordinarily high Yes-side yield implies the market is pricing near-zero probability despite no recent news flow, warranting caution on both sides given the illiquidity and imminent resolution window.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x37d433cdc6c2d28c622b58991a6435ba66b7e19642d20f001dd47d118331c6b1 yes 100