What is the current probability for "Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1976.9% and 11.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 5/10¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $1,834.22·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b

7-day price355 snapshots · 11 regime

51¢7¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 29

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 42¢(Δ -35¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 50.5%Close-time delta 18063h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1976.9%

IY (No) 11.2%

Adj IY 1977%

CRI 13

RV 9659%

VR 38.01

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1976.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1977%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	9659%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	38.01	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 5:00:04 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 4:53:27 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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