Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing an 8% probability of a Trump pardon for SBF with extremely thin liquidity—zero 24-hour volume despite $11.9M open interest—suggesting the price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing an 8% probability of a Trump pardon for SBF with extremely thin liquidity—zero 24-hour volume despite $11.9M open interest—suggesting the price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yield (1,627% on Yes vs. 12.3% on No) indicates severe mispricing or that the market is functioning primarily as a sentiment indicator rather than an active trading venue. With 258 days to resolution and a 12 Cliff Risk Index, the binary outcome creates outsized leverage for any late-stage political developments, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid hedge.
Also on kalshi at 25¢(Δ -18¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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sf trade 0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f yes 100