Hunter Biden · Who will Trump pardon before 2027
Hunter Biden is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Who will Trump pardon before 2027?.
Price history
12¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Hunter Biden
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Keonne Rodriguez 25¢
Range
4¢-25¢
Family volume
$272K
Identifier
0xcd4a8e57...dabb
Jun 13, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
12¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$272K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xcd4a8e57…dabb
Event family
Who will Trump pardon before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$272K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Keonne Rodriguez 25¢
Current share
1%
Keonne Rodriguez
polymarket · 0x54701be7ec2f8ae91308ef7ca1e28720f74664e3d3dc446ceef76e86a785e579
Steve Bannon
polymarket · 0x4a869db910b4f8e3dc8e4b562889939b2ad272c8cef5914eadeb12fb6b979ad2
Ryan Salame
polymarket · 0xbde10fc985687f35034b62df6cd50adbe835dcf08a36a93c4c695ed75777e32c
Hunter Biden
polymarket · 0xcd4a8e578de8204cf31c57e509e507c81462b10ef0840d0495c737bd047edabb
Sam Bankman-Fried
polymarket · 0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f
Ghislaine Maxwell
polymarket · 0xef145ca5ba752b022f71b4d1f7abeb6c311cd537c0d1e64f3682ca90b2412dbf
Diddy
polymarket · 0xe16cd141288e4f14414608210a92225704d5d0a90ef79fd732b83af5c47623e4
Julian Assange
polymarket · 0x507746b101b9b031567da9c5cb1bf714dac808299708020fc91a9fa6a6032978
Martin Shkreli
polymarket · 0xe243748396163f096042bb0c7ea137a864f5259b9b906ce1656ec8d4bd3c64d0
Nicolas Maduro
polymarket · 0x1b53ad65dae4809d3d1097bbcd6be1f44ba5cddd47be9ce21896722c7d79681a
Young Thug
polymarket · 0xaf3f06b4f26051357aa7086b5e58ef3d56a600a2da3122b3f8458077b80efec7
Derek Chauvin
polymarket · 0x354d0b717b2f83b620f34be00890b6dd4e93a9b7c7ad71d435db77eff868b91c
Edward Snowden
polymarket · 0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf
Do Kwon
polymarket · 0xe3756fe9c41dd786bac8d5092c783e02463f5d5de99285f1f5d0fd47df02f76a
Himself
polymarket · 0x6bc658b5fdfded234356308d971d7b93e2e92c48eff32144bc163b4a3da7277b
Elon Musk
polymarket · 0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.