Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2688% implied yield on the Yes side against just 7.4% on the No side, yet trades at near-zero volume ($0 in 24h) with modest open interest of $11,858, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2688% implied yield on the Yes side against just 7.4% on the No side, yet trades at near-zero volume ($0 in 24h) with modest open interest of $11,858, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing. The 5¢ price has declined from 6¢ over seven days, indicating weakening conviction in a pardon despite the generous odds, while the 19 cliff risk index flags significant tail risk as we approach the late-2026 resolution window. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with insufficient market depth to validate the extreme yield differential.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcd4a8e578de8204cf31c57e509e507c81462b10ef0840d0495c737bd047edabb yes 100