Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 14¢ price generating an implausible 869% implied yield on the Yes side, while the No side offers only 23%—a massive asymmetry that suggests either severe liquidity constraints or model breakdown given the $0 24-hour volume and wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 14¢ price generating an implausible 869% implied yield on the Yes side, while the No side offers only 23%—a massive asymmetry that suggests either severe liquidity constraints or model breakdown given the $0 24-hour volume and wide 9¢ spread. The astronomical realized volatility of 3616% and vol ratio of 14.80 indicate this is a highly unstable, thinly-traded contract where the price may not reflect genuine probability assessment. With 258 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, the market faces meaningful event risk around potential Trump pardons in early 2025, but the current pricing appears driven more by illiquidity and technical factors than fundamental conviction about a Young Thug pardon.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xaf3f06b4f26051357aa7086b5e58ef3d56a600a2da3122b3f8458077b80efec7 yes 100