Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This Snowden pardon market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1,038% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $2.1M open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin liquidity and wide 12¢ spreads.
Analysis
This Snowden pardon market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1,038% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $2.1M open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin liquidity and wide 12¢ spreads. The realized volatility of 880% and recent price decline from 15¢ to 12¢ over seven days indicate significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime score (0.477) and modest 0.8/h information arrival rate suggest no major catalyst is currently driving the market. With 258 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, traders should be cautious of the illiquidity trap—the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of actually executing positions at posted prices rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Also on kalshi at 39¢(Δ -28¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf yes 100