What is the current probability for "Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 77¢ (77% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 196 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 62.2% and 559.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market prices Steve Hilton's advancement to California's general election at 82%, implying a 39.9% annualized yield for Yes holders—reasonable given the 201-day timeframe, though the extreme 829% implied yield for No positions signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity on the downside.

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77¢

Bid/Ask 75/78¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $2,440.55·OI $20,104.39·Closes Nov 3, 2026·196d remaining

KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-SHIL

7-day price117 snapshots · 35 regime

83¢75¢ current

Apr 973¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices Steve Hilton's advancement to California's general election at 82%, implying a 39.9% annualized yield for Yes holders—reasonable given the 201-day timeframe, though the extreme 829% implied yield for No positions signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity on the downside. The thin 24-hour volume of $606.39 against $19,791 open interest, combined with a 106% realized volatility and 1.61 vol ratio, suggests limited liquidity and potential for sharp repricing as the primary approaches, particularly given the 0.8 info arrivals per hour indicating steady news flow around California's gubernatorial race.

Resolution rules

If Steve Hilton advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 62.2%

IY (No) 559.4%

Adj IY 544%

CRI 3

RV 147%

VR 1.88

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	62.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	559.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	544%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	147%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.88	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	10.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	1.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:20:46 PM

SF edge 12.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +12¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watso

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-SHIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →