What is the current probability for "Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 196 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 186.5% and 186.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market has experienced explosive price appreciation, jumping 89% over seven days from 38¢ to 72¢, suggesting significant new information favoring Tom Steyer's advancement to California's general election.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 50/51¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2,297.66·OI $40,744.62·Closes Nov 3, 2026·196d remaining

KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-TSTE

7-day price272 snapshots · 88 regime

77¢50¢ current

Apr 835¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market has experienced explosive price appreciation, jumping 89% over seven days from 38¢ to 72¢, suggesting significant new information favoring Tom Steyer's advancement to California's general election. The 72¢ price implies a 72% probability, yet the No side offers an extreme 468% risk-adjusted implied yield, indicating the market may be overweighting Steyer's chances given California's competitive gubernatorial field and the unpredictability of top-two primary dynamics. With $36.6k open interest but only $3.8k in 24-hour volume and 201 days to expiry, liquidity is modest relative to open positions, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders seeking to exit positions.

Resolution rules

If Tom Steyer advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 186.5%

IY (No) 186.5%

Adj IY 183%

CRI 1

RV 179%

VR 1.54

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	186.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	186.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	183%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	179%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.54	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	5.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	1.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.346

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:20:45 PM

SF edge 0.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +0¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watso

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-TSTE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →