Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 861% annualized return against just 4.9% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Rakhi Israni Singh's chances at 13 cents.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 861% annualized return against just 4.9% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Rakhi Israni Singh's chances at 13 cents. The 7-day price surge from 3¢ to 7¢ (133% move) combined with minimal liquidity ($60 daily volume, $398 open interest) and a wide 6-cent spread indicates thin order books and potential for sharp reversals, though the 563-day timeframe to resolution provides substantial runway for information to emerge. The moderate cliff risk index of 13 and neutral regime score suggest this isn't an imminent catalyst event, making the extreme yield differential potentially exploitable for contrarian traders with conviction on Singh's viability.
Resolution rules
If Rakhi Israni Singh wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA14SWINNER-26-RSIN yes 100