Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary?

This market on Kenyan McDuffie's chances in the 2026 D.C. Democratic primary has collapsed 24% over seven days (from 41¢ to 31¢), now pricing him at just 35% despite over 18 months until the election, suggesting either new negative information or shifting sentiment among D.C. Democrats. The 143.6% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and modest open interest ($3,671.77) indicates this is an illiquid, speculative position where the high yield may reflect thin trading rather than genuine opportunity. The extreme realized volatility of 480% and vol ratio of 4.32 underscore the market's instability and low information arrival rate (0.3/h), making this a high-risk bet dependent on sparse updates about the race.

Resolution rules

If Kenyan McDuffie wins the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade