Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Polymarket. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.6M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stale or trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.6M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stale or trapped. The 32¢ price has declined 16% over seven days while displaying exceptional volatility (1148% realized, 2.82 vol ratio), indicating significant uncertainty around McDuffie's candidacy or viability in the June 2026 primary. The asymmetric implied yields (1294% for Yes vs. 287% for No) reflect the low price floor and illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, making this contract a poor indicator of actual odds until meaningful trading resumes.
Also on kalshi at 33¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x7a5ce7ceb8a77b024fa14c123e8267b7ab23ceb53d63b270d92517747e6ece81 yes 100