Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

This illiquid micro-market on Sam Raskin's Fields Medal prospects shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a 498.9% implied yield versus just 39.7% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about resolution mechanics. The $706 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable as a probability estimate given the wide 8¢ spread. With 259 days to expiry and a modest Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market has time for information to resolve, but the lack of liquidity means any position entry would face substantial slippage.

Resolution rules

If Sam Raskin wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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