Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2029. This illiquid micro-market on Kalshi shows the Modern Revolutionary Party priced at 78¢ with only $8.65 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal trader conviction despite the 12.0% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Kalshi shows the Modern Revolutionary Party priced at 78¢ with only $8.65 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal trader conviction despite the 12.0% implied yield on the Yes side. The 6¢ spread is wide relative to the contract size, and the 1,129-day timeframe to the May 2029 expiry creates substantial cliff risk (index of 3) as Dominican political dynamics remain uncertain through 2028. The asymmetric 87.4% implied yield on the No side hints that contrarian bettors may see value shorting the favorite, though the market's near-zero liquidity makes execution challenging.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election expected to be held in 2028 at the latest is Modern Revolutionary Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOMINICANREPUBLICDEPUTIES-28-PRM yes 100