Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract has declined sharply from 46¢ to 39¢ over seven days, suggesting recent negative sentiment toward their WI-01 prospects, though the 9¢ spread indicates moderate liquidity constraints with only $14,209 in open interest. The extreme 284% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and a realized volatility of 1096% suggests this is a thin, potentially illiquid market prone to large price swings rather than a reliable probability estimate. With 201 days until resolution and a high information arrival rate of 2.9 signals per hour, the market appears to be pricing in significant uncertainty about this competitive district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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