Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat?

This Wisconsin House market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing. The 284% implied yield on the "No" side and 1036% realized volatility indicate highly unstable price discovery, with the 8-cent spread representing an unusually wide gap for a binary contract. While the Republican 61-cent price has drifted up 4 cents over seven days, the market's neutral regime score and low information arrival rate (1.5/hour) suggest limited fundamental developments are driving this movement, making the current pricing potentially unreliable for decision-making.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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