Will Aaron Ford be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Nevada?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Aaron Ford be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Nevada?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Aaron Ford is priced at an exceptionally high 96¢, reflecting near-certainty of his Democratic nomination, though the 7-day rally from 88¢ suggests recent positive developments (likely official announcement or endorsement consolidation).
Analysis
Aaron Ford is priced at an exceptionally high 96¢, reflecting near-certainty of his Democratic nomination, though the 7-day rally from 88¢ suggests recent positive developments (likely official announcement or endorsement consolidation). The extreme 3458% implied yield on the No side is a classic artifact of deep out-of-the-money pricing rather than genuine opportunity, and the modest $2,550.57 open interest indicates thin liquidity despite the tight 2¢ spread. With 201 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, the market is relatively stable, but traders should note that the 9.6% annualized yield on Yes reflects the time value of capital locked into a heavily consensus position.
Also on polymarket at 95¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Aaron Ford wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Nevada Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVNVNOMD-26-AFOR yes 100