Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. Aaron Ford is priced at an extremely high 96¢ with only 53 days to expiration, reflecting near-certainty of his primary victory, yet the market shows modest $1.3M in 24-hour volume against $15M open interest—suggesting limited recent conviction despite the steep odds.
Analysis
Aaron Ford is priced at an extremely high 96¢ with only 53 days to expiration, reflecting near-certainty of his primary victory, yet the market shows modest $1.3M in 24-hour volume against $15M open interest—suggesting limited recent conviction despite the steep odds. The No side carries a wildly distorted 16,523% implied yield due to the tiny 4¢ ask price, indicating minimal liquidity on the contrarian side and potential mispricing of tail risk. The 6-point price rally over seven days (90¢ to 96¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests late-stage consolidation toward resolution, though the neutral regime score warrants caution about unexpected primary dynamics emerging in the final weeks.
Also on kalshi at 95¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Nevada, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Nevada Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Nevada Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf762b70509052cd499fcb48285f09573113874bb004cb6ab85f3e7d203569de2 yes 100